egypt — VOICES for REASONVOICES for REASON

Before Egypt’s interim military government dissolved parliament, it was the Islamists of the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafist movement that had won the majority of seats. Now, the Brotherhood’s Mohammed Morsi has been declared the winner of Egypt’s presidential election.

Horrifying? Yes. Surprising? Not so much. These developments fit a larger trend of Islamists ascending to power across the Middle East, following the upheavals that some took to be an Arab Spring. In this Q&A, I touch on some of the factors that account for the rise of Islamists in Egypt:

WJ: the situation that you portray is quite grim, but some would argue that the revolutions are still in their early stages, and the possibility of fundamental political changes, changes for the better, cannot be foreclosed. Do you see room for that kind of change, long term?

Journo: We should welcome political developments that bring greater freedom, meaning real respect for individual rights, for the people in that part of the world. We are better off when other nations truly move towards the protection of property rights, economic freedom, free speech—all of which are sorely lacking in the Middle East, with the notable exception of Israel. But for these political ideals to take root would require some fundamental changes in the political culture of the region.

What are the prospects for such fundamental changes? Doubtful. A major reason is the extent to which Islam permeates people’s thinking and conceptual lexicon. Take Egypt. One explanation for why the Islamists did so well in the elections is that the Muslim Brotherhood was so well established, with a broad network of followers and organizers, and the ability to get out the vote. That’s true, but a superficial explanation. It misses the real reason. The Salafis were far less organized politically, yet did remarkably well. Why?

What both groups have as an advantage over the quasi-secular groups is that the Islamists speak in the religious lexicon that all Muslims have been immersed in, even if they themselves are far from devout. Try advocating for a separation between state and religion—something unknown through most of Muslim history; when it became known through contact with the West, it was shunned. If you advocate for a state- religion separation, you’ll face resistance. If you advocate for a secular state, the Islamists easily undercut it by portraying it as Western, and discrediting “secular” by tying it to pseudo-secular dictators, like Mubarak and Assad, who have ruled for decades. The Islamists can easily vilify “secular” as immoral, even repressive. So secular-oriented activists have to talk in vague terms such as “civilian state” lest they appear to advocate an impious society. The sheer fact that you can discredit something by tagging it as Western is revealing.

That illustrates two things. First, it’s the religious groups that set the terms of debate, because they couch their arguments in moral terms, terms that resonate with a broad swath of the populace. Second, there’s little understanding of what secular society looks like—a fact evidenced in history by the dearth of terminology in Muslim lands to describe and conceptualize it, and in the present by the implicit equation of secular, or non-religious, with immorality. The few marginal, secular- leaning advocates are thus on the defensive, for fear that they be tarred as enemies of virtue and Allah’s law. Islam’s cultural influence provides a huge advantage to Islamists.

Another factor here is that for the last few decades, the region has seen a trend of increasing religiosity—a trend that Islamists both help to drive and benefit from politically. Many people see themselves first and foremost as Muslims, rather than as individuals, or even citizens of their country. They identify themselves more closely and consistently by their adherence to Islam. More Egyptians go to prayers. More mosques are sprouting up. According to one report I’ve seen, in 1986 there was one mosque for every 6,000 or so Egyptians. Nineteen years later—and after a doubling of the population—there was one mosque for every 700 or so people. More women are donning the hijab—without being coerced into it by state-run “morality police.” Amid an increase in religiosity, it is the ideologues of Islamic totalitarianism, espousing the need for restoring piety, who stand to gain not merely a respectful hearing, but also followers.

image: flickr/cc